Client Capital Advisory

Simple Risk Aggregation Example Web App

A simple Monte Carlo solvency example: estimate required capital, identify the main risk drivers, and review the resulting risk profile.

Scenarios: 10000 | Seed: 3550814244 (generated) | Copula: gaussian

Context and interpretation notes for this demonstration model.

Executive Summary

A short summary of the current simulation run.

Equity
10.000000
SCR (VaR 99.5%)
9.045003
Free Equity
0.954997
Coverage Ratio
1.105583

Interpretation

Coverage Ratio >= 1.0: capitalized above SCR threshold. Coverage Ratio < 1.0: capital shortfall versus SCR.

  • Primary diversified charges: Real Estate 2.057248, Spread 4.579489, Interest Rate 0.683927.
  • Total diversified SCR equals 9.045003 and is benchmarked against available equity.

Results

Simulation outputs based on the current assumptions.

Diversified SCR Allocation

Risk Allocated SCR
Real Estate2.057248
Spread4.579489
Interest Rate0.683927
Technical Provisions1.545753
Non-linear0.178585
Total9.045003

Undiversified VaR (99.5%)

Risk VaR
Real Estate6.140883
Spread7.634311
Interest Rate4.101477
Technical Provisions3.609275
Non-linear0.614844

Visual Summary

Tail scenarios (losses at or above SCR): change in assets versus change in liabilities relative to the base balance sheet.

Simulated risk factors across scenarios, shown as a scatter matrix with color indicating total loss.

Empirical loss function (ECDF): cumulative probability of total loss, with SCR and 99.5% reference lines.

Assumptions & Inputs

Adjust assumptions and rerun the model to compare strategic views.

Model Notes

Method: Monte Carlo simulation with 99.5% VaR and correlation-based aggregation.

Copula (Gaussian): GAUSSIAN copula with PSD-adjusted correlation matrix and Cholesky-based scenario generation.

Copula (T): T copula with PSD-adjusted correlation matrix, Cholesky-based scenario generation, and t-distributed tail behavior (df = 6.0 when selected).

Interpretation: Coverage Ratio >= 1.0 means available equity is at least as high as required SCR.

Limitations: Results are model-based estimates and depend on assumptions and input quality.

Balance Sheet

Real Estate

Bonds

Technical Provisions

Risk Distributions

Distribution Mapping

Real Estate Risk: Lognormal
Spread Risk: Normal
Interest Rate Risk: Normal
Technical Provision Risk: Normal

Copula Settings

Real Estate Risk Lognormal

Spread Risk Normal

Interest Rate Risk Normal

Technical Provision Risk Normal

Yield Curve
Correlation Matrix
Real Estate
Spread
Interest Rate
Tech. Provisions
Real Estate
1.00
Spread
1.00
Interest Rate
1.00
Tech. Provisions
1.00
Simulation Controls

Model Matrices

Implied dependency structure used by the simulation.

Correlation Heatmap

Correlation Matrix

1.000000 0.250000 -0.350000 -0.100000
0.250000 1.000000 0.200000 -0.150000
-0.350000 0.200000 1.000000 -0.300000
-0.100000 -0.150000 -0.300000 1.000000

Cholesky Matrix

1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
0.250000 0.968246 0.000000 0.000000
-0.350000 0.296929 0.888444 0.000000
-0.100000 -0.129099 -0.333917 0.928349

Demo Note

Export And Review

This demonstration configuration can be adjusted by changing assumptions and scenario definitions.